19 June 2012
The Hungarian Parliament recently debated the achievements of the first two years of the current Fidesz administration. For many commentators, this was to be the first salvo in a battle for the hearts and minds of the Hungarian electorate, just at a time when a number of them were indicating that a political swing was underway against the government.
The chattering classes in Budapest are predicting the political demise of Fidesz. Indeed, they are also talking of a two-thirds majority for a united opposition and some go further and suggest that this ‘rainbow coalition’ will form up under Gordon Bajnai.
The only think wrong with this scenario is the absence of reality. Let’s look carefully at this scenario.
Until very recently, the Socialists and LMP were telling us that Fidesz’s gerrymandering had ensured a permanent parliamentary majority for the right. The EU was invoked to come and prevent the imposition of dictatorship in Budapest. Why the sudden change of opinion? The answer is simple – the political opposition in Hungary have lied to the public for two years in claiming that they were living in a version of Belarus on the Danube. However, they seem to have conveniently overlooked the fact that such claims damaged Hungary’s image abroad. Would you really contemplate giving a political grouping that has done so much to undermine the country the reins of power? No, I didn’t think so.
Another factor the Socialists and Liberals cite in their favour is their record of economic management. They cite a glorious past but when you look closely at the record, more unreality. Even the most biased political commentator cannot fail to recognise that the economic record of government between 2002 and 2010 was nothing short of staggering incompetence. The public spending deficit was totally out of control. The great financial crisis of 2008 wasn’t even recognised as such by the then Prime Minister Gyurcsány – read his analysis and public statements at the time and weep – either with laughter or sadness. Have we really forgotten how Gyurcsány, the economic wizard, the great businessman, was humiliated by the EU and Member States’ leaders when he offered his proposals for solving the financial crisis in Europe?
The government of experts which followed the resignation of Gyurcsány, many of whom were party to the financial mismanagement, fared little better. In the unreal world of Socialists and Liberal politics, Gordon Bajnai is described as some sort of talisman – a hybrid of Keynes and the ‘Dear Leader’. For a man who has never been elected and whose claim to economic competence resides in borrowing loans from the EU and IMF and doing what he was told, is really sad. Does anyone believe that this political saviour, a man whose private business credentials are wafer thin, is the man to lead Hungary? No, I didn’t think so.
So where do we get a Fidesz in political disarray and a Prime Minister on the run? Sadly, the answer lies in the absence of proper political analysis and a weak media. The current crop of journalists is not – either by choice or inexperience – holding all political parties to account for their actions and policies. What passes for political and economic journalism and analysis in Hungary is vapid and shows no understanding of the wider political, economic and social issues of the day. Being confrontational in political interviewing is no substitute for asking the right question. With the Eurozone in perpetual crisis, how well or otherwise is Orbán’s handling of the economy? Might comparative analysis tell us something? What do the political changes in France or the Netherlands or Spain and Italy tell us about the German-dominated view that austerity and public spending cuts is the only way forward? Could a well-timed loosening of the public purse strings in 2013 and early 2014 not suggest that Fidesz might have a sound economic policy?
The Socialists live in the past and their power base is dying – literally. They have yet to craft any meaningful policies that will attract voters living under the fear of economic stagnation. They know only too well that any alliance at the next election with Ferenc Gyurcsány is political suicide and who are the LMP?
Hungary’s Socialists and Liberals need to get real and work hard for power which means jettisoning the unreality that goes with being in opposition. Two thirds majority and a successful Gordon Bajnai come from the Harry Potter school of politics.