25 April 2013
Events of the last few weeks in Hungary and Europe must have strengthened Viktor Orbán and Fidesz’s belief that victory in next year’s election is looking ever more likely.
Let’s look first at economics. Since Fidesz came to power in 2010 they have been criticised at home and abroad for adopting ‘unorthodox’ economic policies. The EU and the IMF – conflating economic and political issues – remained adamant that the lack of austerity in Hungary was unsustainable and in particular, any attempt to attract an IMF loan would be jeopardised by a failure to bring the direction of the Hungarian economy in line with the prevalent thinking in Brussels. Even encouraging inflation figures or debt levels were mocked as representing short-termism.
It must have been a great surprise to the EU and those economists favouring austerity to learn that their policy was based on false figures and false assumptions. The discrediting of the thesis of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, two Harvard economists whose policy was trumpeted by Oli Rehn and other EU ‘experts’ as vindication of the EU’s austerity measures, has come hard on the heels of massive economic dislocation in the Eurozone and most recently in Cyprus, were the EU oversaw the tearing up of the rule of law. Hungary has been spared this fiasco and Viktor Orbán must take some credit for resisting the incorrect blandishments of political and economic opponents. In Hungary, the individual most associated with the discredited austerity policy of the EU has been Gordon Bajnai and his American backers. I wonder what he has to say now?
Then there is the continuing anti-Hungarian vendetta of European Commissioner Vivian Reding. It is now becoming ever more apparent that EU criticism of the new Hungarian constitution is both overblown and politically motivated and at long last this has been picked up by Fidesz’s political allies in the European Parliament. It would seem now that irrespective of what Reding claims, it is now perceived as being unfair and counter-productive and merely strengthens Orbán’s domestic political position. Hungary has enough experience and history to recognise external political interference when it sees it.
Let’s now turn to domestic Hungarian politics. Here also, Fidesz must be heartened by the continuing struggles among the opposition, the failure of Mesterházy and Bajnai to compromise on the question of who is best fit to lead a united opposition and the unfolding scandal involving the previous Socialist-Liberal government, their intelligence services and organised crime. Every opinion poll indicates a success for Fidesz at the next election, which must add to the opposition’s discomfort.
The developing scandal cited above already has Mesterházy and Bajnai diving for cover – the former pointing the finger at his predecessors and Bajnai claiming it was he that sacked the main figure in the scandal, former head of the intelligence services, Sándor Laborc. The only problem for the Hungarian political opposition is that the claims of both Mesterházy and Bajnai only serve to deepen the conspiracy. Mesterházy’s denial of knowledge of the affair simply lays any blame for illegal behaviour on former Socialist Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány. It can be no other way. Even more questions now lie at Bajnai’s door. Why did he sack Laborc? Did he know something and if so what? By sacking his intelligence head, did he want the problem to disappear? In short, was Bajnai part of some sort of cover up?
The truth might lie somewhere else and those currently accused might be totally innocent. The problem is that such revelations, which seem to be emerging can only add fuel to the fires of those who wish for a whole root and branch investigation of corruption in public life. Furthermore, as long as the revelations touch on the perceived activities of the last Socialist-Liberal government, then Mesterházy and Bajnai must remain on the back foot and Fidesz on the attack.
All of this adds up to a big smile on Viktor Orbán’s face and indeed, I am sure I can hear the laughter from here!