8 January 2013
As the New Year unfolds in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán could be forgiven for smiling. Despite the recent Constitutional Court ruling on voter registration and the ringing of student protester bells in his ears, Fidesz is not entering 2013 in such a bad shape.
The same cannot be said for the political opposition. The Left, Liberals and Far Right must be wondering what, if anything, they achieved in 2012. Despite the persistent attempts to blacken Fidesz’s democratic credentials and the ludicrous smearing of Orbán as a dictator in the mould of Putin and Lukashenko – smearing eagerly supported by a number of Left-Liberal politicians in the European Parliament – they have singularly failed to dislodge Fidesz and Orbán as the most popular political party and party leader in Hungary. Crucially, the Hungarian people failed to recognise such crude caricatures.
In reality, the Hungarian political opposition have proved to be inept, incompetent and bereft of concrete policies. A careful analysis of their public statements – it would be unjust to consider them policies – clearly underlines their dilemmas. Like a political weather vane, the opposition is one minute capable of winning a two-thirds majority in parliament and in another a mere simple majority and in another, if they do not unite, they will fail to oust the ruling party.
The Left cannot decide where it stands on most issues of public policy. That said, we should be grateful that it seems to have left the field of gesture politics to former Prime Minister Gyurcsány, whether it be staying with ‘ordinary voters’ or going on ‘hunger strike’, none of it makes the least bit of bother for the ruling party. Actually the leader of the MSZP is considered so lightweight that even his own party ‘grandees’ consider him unable to defeat Viktor Orbán. In short, the Left has nothing to say.
The liberal element of in Hungarian politics fares no better. The LMP, as well as having no credible agenda is riven by internal bickering and petty jealousy – who said politics can be different? Standing with them and against them is Gordon Bajnai, the former technocrat prime minister who wants you to forget his past and trust him on your future. He is the modern representation of elitist European politicians where party is irrelevant and power is everything. Supported by keen young activists and analysts – the ‘Think Tank Generation’ Bajnai can forever analyse your problems but give you no solutions. Already, his premature candidacy for power has been derailed by disappointing polls and the failure of other opposition leaders to recognise his leadership talents.
At least one party has recognised the hopelessness of their situation – the MSZP have re-hired an old friend in Ron Werber, the Israeli political consultant who values the negative in campaigning. One can only wonder how he will advance the Socialist cause in Hungarian politics? However Werber has a track record and Fidesz are unlikely to be caught out again with this kind of political campaigning. In fact they might have a few surprises for Mr Werber!
Last year, Orban was laughing. This year, he starts with a smile. It won’t take long for him to flex his political muscle and begin to exploit the confusion and incompetence of the political opposition. Look out for some judicious ‘salami slicing’ of opposition pledges.