28 October 2011
The decision of Ferenc Gyurcsány to leave the Hungarian Socialist Party, along with another nine Socialist MPs, has signalled the meltdown of the political Left in Hungary.
That Gyurcsány actually left was in itself not unexpected. Having contributed much to the humiliating defeat of the Socialist Party in the 2010 elections, he has struggled since then to re-establish his authority within the rank and file. His posturing about the future direction of the Socialists and public petulance over questions of his loyalty to the Party not only irritated the party leadership but diluted any attempts by the Socialists to portray themselves as a credible opposition party. Furthermore, the high-profile public prosecution cases against Gyurcsány merely serve to reinforce the perception that the former Prime Minister was not only an unwanted distraction but also a political liability.
Even the eventual desertion of the party by Gyurcsány and friends reeks of opportunism – albeit the opportunism might have backfired. Gyurcsány’s allies in parliament represent no-one but themselves. They disenfranchised the voters who put them there and are unwilling to recognise that they have no mandate to speak in national political discourse. Who or what are they meant to represent? What kind of democracy is this?
This split will further weaken the attraction of the Left in Hungary. The Socialists, the LMP and the new Gyurcsány ‘Democratic Coalition’ will tear each other apart for votes and it is very likely that this struggle for survival will lead to the LMP and DK both failing to muster the necessary 5% to sit in Parliament. The Socialists – now really only a ‘pensioner’s party’ – will continue to lose votes as its traditional voter base slowly passes away. Worse, all of them continue to peddle the same political ideas that killed the Left and the Liberals last time round. None of them have anything to say.
Under this scenario, one would not bet against Fidesz being returned again to power with a supermajority. Their and Viktor Orbán’s popularity remains rock solid and many of the current policies – when compared to the general mess in Europe – are not looking so bad after all.