22 December 2011
The recent decision by a second credit rating agency to downgrade Hungary’s credit rating to junk has been hailed by the Hungarian Socialists and LMP as a vindication of their criticism of the Orban administration. In their view, the current Hungarian government is akin to a ‘fascist dictatorship’ which has snuffed out democracy in Hungary and the more that the international community can do to reverse Fidesz policy the better. Into this equation, the opposition lump the IMF negotiations and the frequent criticisms of the European Commission and Parliament.
Of course, this begs the question as to why ordinary Hungarians seem unfazed by this. After a year and more of Fidesz rule, why is the level of public discontent not more evident?
The answer lies is the election result and the reasons behind the result. These reasons continue to resonate today and defy the so-called opposition logic.
First, the election result was emphatic and despite all sorts of whining from the opposition, they lost spectacularly. In short, the Socialist and Liberal policies between 2002 and 2010 were disastrous for Hungary and contributed greatly to Hungary’s economic dilemma. It might seem attractive for the Socialists and LMP to seek the support of allies in Brussels but for many Hungarians, this might seem weak at best and disloyal to Hungary at worst. So much of the criticism from abroad has been initiated and stoked by Hungary’s irrelevant opposition.
Second, this pressure from the EU and to an extent the IMF is often perceived as external interference in Hungary’s domestic affairs. To the casual observer, every move by the Fidesz government to introduce new legislation is immediately the subject of EU indignation. Memories of Soviet domination spring to mind. Indeed, if the critics in Brussels would take the time to revisit the 2010 election result, they might realise that what Fidesz promised and is now enacting is a comprehensive strategic change in the country’s domestic make-up: at last the post-communist settlement is taking shape, a process that should have taken place twenty years ago. Like it or not, people are being held to account and not only those involved in the more recent corruption scandals involving the theft of the public purse, the misuse of government funds and the corrupting of public office. The average Hungarian is right to ask where the EU criticism was then. Surely they must wonder why the European media, the European Commission and the European Parliament failed to stand up for the opposition after the ‘Lie Speech’. When an EU Prime Minister stands up at that time and announces that he had lied day and night, falsified economic data and stole an election with a bag of tricks, did the rest of the EU not think that this had damaged democracy or for that matter the EU?
Thirdly, the election result was also a comment on EU and global economic policy and the workings of the international financial community. It was evident by the 2010 Hungarian national election that many EU countries, including many in the eurozone, were in dire straits. It was clear that excessive debt and economic and fiscal mismanagement had become a hallmark of EU policy. When European banks complain that the Fidesz government has unilaterally changed the terms of foreign-based mortgages for thousands of Hungarians, should they not ask themselves how much taxpayers money has been pumped into these banks to keep them afloat? Do the credit agencies not have a case to answer?
A few months ago, Jean-Claude Junker, who chairs the euro-group of finance ministers, lashed out at the credit agencies and claimed that their influence has been ‘disastrous’. Interestingly, he suggested that ‘We shouldn’t only orient ourselves toward the verdicts of the rating agencies’. I presume that his comments also holds good for Hungary?
It really is time for the Hungarian opposition to accept that they lost the last election. For all its faults, Hungary is not a dictatorship. Surely the Socialists of all people should know that – after all, they ran one for fifty years!