3 september 2013
In recent days, the Socialists and the recently manufactured party of former Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai have cobbled together an electoral pact of sorts. Agreement has been reached on the division of seats available to each for contesting in the next election and agreement on mutual support, where appropriate.
More noticeable perhaps was the failure to agree on the Prime Minister candidate and the substance of anything resembling a political vision for Hungary. Similarly, no mention was made of another former Prime Minister, Ferenc Gyurcsány and his Democratic Coalition, or for that matter, mention of the fragmented LMP and the Liberals under Gábor Fodor as elements in a grand coalition of the Liberal-Left.
There is of course a perfectly good explanation for all of this – in short, the personalities and aspirations of the main opposition leaders. The Hungarian electorate have for some time now been exposed to the internal party machinations of the Socialist Party as it has sought to recover from its political drubbing in 2010. Socialist leader Attila Mesterházy, as well as seeking to maintain his weakened position after such a disaster, has also had to find a suitable modus vivendi with the two politicians most closely identified with the causes of the defeat, namely Ferenc Gyurcsány Ferenc and Gordon Bajnai. Indeed, it is worth speculating that the Socialist Party hiring of Ron Werber was less to do with defeating Fidesz and more to do with the need to maintain the Socialists as the main political opposition, which of course meant the emasculating, if possible, of Gyurcsány and Bajnai. Have you noticed how Mesterházy has completely distanced himself from Bajnai regarding the Hajdú-Bét scandal?
To some extent, Mesterházy has succeeded, although much of his ‘success’ is down to the vaulting ambition of Bajnai and his inability to compromise on his desire to be Prime Minister. For reasons only known to Bajnai, the latter entered the political fray far too early and lacking in any real political vision, has seen his ratings plummet. His inability to rise above set-piece sloganeering and the failure to create a real party base and more damagingly, his inability to shake off some searching questions regarding his involvement in the Hajdú-Bét scandal has left him vulnerable and ever reliant on foreign support and international business and finance.
A recent TV interview of both Mesterházy and Bajnai together appeared to vindicate the view that Mesterházy was in the ascendency – not surprising given that the Socialists have a party structure and a party faithful, which although diminishing in number, can be counted on at election time. Bajnai has no such base for the simple reason that he has never been elected and gives the impression that his ambition only runs as far as being Prime Minister and nothing else. He doesn’t seem to recognise that such open lusting for ultimate power on the back of an electoral partner that has the votes is unlikely to bear fruit.
Add to the mix that both Mesterházy and Bajnai would rather campaign without the involvement of former colleague Gyurcsány – seen by both as a political liability – then you can easily see why many commentators fear another Fidesz rout at the next election. Of course that is not how Gyurcsány will view the strategic landscape and he can be expected to try and reposition himself within a more inclusive opposition of the Liberal-Left.
Given that all parties of the opposition will go into the next election with separate voices, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that rifts and clashes will emerge as the weeks and months go by and there will be political casualties. Gyurcsány has already stated publically that Bajnai is finished and he might be right. Certainly Mesterházy has taught his erstwhile partner Bajnai some home truths on the nature of democratic accountability during their protracted negotiations – a response to the infatuation of Bajnai and his supporters with the power of opinion polls as an indicator of political success.
Predicting an outcome of an election that is still over six months away might not be wise but already some Hungarian political commentators believe that a Fidesz victory is assured. However, the more interesting election outcome will involve the ‘three amigos’ – which one, if any, will have a political future beyond next summer?