1 November 2013
The political opposition in Hungary is dead in the water. Despite having over three years to regroup after the disastrous election result of 2010, it has singularly failed to do so.
One explanation for this was an early failure to accept the significance of the election result. The Hungarian Socialist Party, encouraged by external commentators, focused far too much attention on the Fidesz ‘super majority’ and related issues such as the new constitution, the fractious relationship with the EU and the cult of personality.
A clear consequence of this failure was to ignore the reasons for electoral defeat. The main contours of the failed Socialist-Liberal regime were rarely visited in order to ascertain what went wrong and what, if anything went right, the basis of – one would have thought – new thinking and new policies. Frankly, you would be hard put to distinguish any new thinking in the Socialist camp.
Another important consequence of the electoral defeat in 2010 was the total obliteration of the Liberals. The financial meltdown of 2008 and the subsequent attempts to restore economic confidence not only failed but it cruelly highlighted the failure of the liberal interpretation of modern economics in particular and the demise of many liberal agendas in general. The attempt by LMP not only to resuscitate liberalism but also to create a disciplined alternative party of government has been an abject failure – with fragmentation and grubby political dealings offering nothing in the way of credible political opposition.
The more recent failure – which actually compounded the others – was the belated and hesitant entry of Gordon Bajnai to opposition politics. The attention of many sections of the media, both domestic and international, on the ‘suitability’ of Bajnai as a political saviour for Hungary was a critical reason why Bajnai’s claims of competence were never really tested until late in the day. However, as soon as he came under intense scrutiny, the blemishes in his career, both private and public, were too many to overlook. Indeed, the scrutiny of his business dealings left him badly exposed – particularly the claims that he was a commercial asset stripper – at a sensitive time in his negotiations with the Socialists to agree an election alliance. In a weakened position, he was unable to press his claim for leadership of the opposition – for him, the only reason he got involved in the first place.
Of course any discussion of the failure of the Left-Liberal opposition in Hungary cannot avoid the Gyurscany question. Both Mesterházy and Bajnai claim that Gyurcsány is toxic in terms of popular perception and therefore a political liability. For his part, Gyurcsány believes that both Mesterházy and Bajnai are incapable of leading a united front against Fidesz and their failure to include his party in a tactical alliance is a mistake.
Actually Gyurcsány is in all possibility right about the state of political opposition, although he fails to acknowledge his part in this failure. The association of Bajnai with a demonstration that simulated the decapitation of Prime Minister Orbán was a glaring mistake and a reflection of Bajnia’s political immaturity and bad judgement. More damaging might be the police case against individuals in the Socialist Party for its involvement in manufacturing a video claiming to expose voting irregularities against Fidesz. The similarities of these tactics only serve to remind people of the old communist regime, a case of shooting yourself in the foot if there ever was one. Voters have long memories.
One final reason why the opposition is most likely to fail is that Fidesz has clear and popular policies. The flat rate tax seems to be working. Hitting banks and energy companies for excessive economic manipulation is not only popular but being replicated in other parts of Europe. Popular also is Viktor Orbán’s perceived standing up for Hungary’s rights in Europe and introducing a more family-orientated social policy, which often flies against the accepted liberalist agenda in Europe. These and many other initiatives come from clear policy development and credibility, something which the political opposition cannot muster at the time being.
The bankruptcy of the politics of the opposition and the likelihood of another Fidesz supermajority can be summed up in an interview recently in which Bajnai claimed that under the opposition, Hungarians will soon be on German wages. What a wonderful world he must live in!