3 April 2014
According to the latest opinion polls, Viktor Orbán and Fidesz will comfortably win another term in office. Of course such forecasts have been wrong in the past, although this time even the political opposition in Hungary have already conceded defeat.
How should we account for this success, should it materialise, on 6 April?
Clearly, the policies of Fidesz have struck a cord with many voters of various ages. Economically, Fidesz inherited an economic mess, not as people believed due to the 2008 financial crash but as a result of gross economic mismanagement by the Gyurcsány and Bajnai administrations. Nevertheless, by foregoing the economic and financial orthodoxy of liberal capitalism – which had just spectacularly failed incidentally – Fidesz sought unorthodox policies which they believed would make an economic difference. By introducing a flat tax, imposing special taxes on the big banks, targeting utility company profits and attempting to stimulate employment with novel forms of government-sponsored back to work schemes has paid off handsomely.
Of course such an unorthodox economic policy was unlikely to find favour with some segments of the global finance community or bodies such as the European Union (EU) or the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Indeed, for the last four years, it would be fair to say that Hungary has received its fair share of international condemnation on not only economic matters but on others issues as diverse as the introduction of a new constitution, the enforced retirement of communist-era judges and its willingness to embrace more traditional and less progressive views on what constitutes society.
The evidence of the last four years, however, would seem to indicate that this new direction resonated with Hungarian society. Indeed, the more Hungarian society rejected the liberal progressive models of the past, the more transparent became the fact that other communities were thinking the same. Brussels’ political elites have been unable to deflect popular criticism across the EU as ever-greater numbers of voters reacted negatively to the existing political and economic order sustained by the liberal democracies. Certainly the Euro crisis inflamed such opinions but so too did the impact of venal global finance on people’s pensions, bank savings, jobs and mortgages.
Yet to provide a more rounded perspective on Fidesz’s success, it is necessary to look at the political opposition and allocate a not inconsiderable proportion of the blame on them. The electoral loss of the Socialist-Liberals in 2010 was monumental – indeed much in keeping with the monumental scale of their political dysfunction. However, they had four years to rectify matters and reconnect with an admittedly suspicious electorate.
They singularly failed to do this. The leading politicians of the left-Liberal opposition were both incompetent and seriously hostile to each other. They failed to appreciate that sound bites are no substitute for policy and that seeking to appeal and exploit international liberal opinion would in the end have no influence on traditional Hungarian voters. In fact, Hungarian society had moved on but the opposition were so engaged in their own power grabs and internal squabbles that they didn’t even notice. When added to the slow drip dripping effect of scandals involving the Socialist Party, it was clear that there was no credible opposition that could erode the perceived competence of Fidesz. Do you know their election title – I don’t!
Should the Hungarian people elect Fidesz again, there will be no room for complacency. Global economic indicators remain stubbornly worrying and imaginative policies will be required to sustain recovery and growth – not just in Hungary but also throughout the EU. The opposition will have to regroup and lose many of the old faces as well as finding new policies.
However, I suspect that Fidesz will, having seen off the rump communist legacy, will now try and tackle the rise of Jobbik, which is such a beacon to Hungarian youth. The Socialist Party, with an ageing support is simply unable to compete with voters in their late teens and twenties. Fidesz can because its core voters span all ages and groups in society and it has a narrative that does value nation but not to the extent of ‘my country, right or wrong’.